Well, you heard it here first (although you’ve probably assumed it for nearly a year): the GOP race is, in effect, over, and the nominee who will be running against President Barack Obama in November is the former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney. I said a couple of weeks ago that what happens in Vegas doesn’t always stay in Vegas, and I stand by that statement despite Rick Santorum’s impressive hat-trick.
First things first; let’s give credit where credit is due. Rick Santorum’s campaign strategists pulled off an incredible feat last week when they took Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado all in one night. Senator Santorum may thank well wishes from the heavens, but the fact is that people voted for Santorum because he was there, because he shares their religious family values, and because he in no way, shape, or form can be misconstrued—by the press or by Newt Gingrich—as a “Massachusetts Moderate.”
Let me digress for a moment and take a look at that phrase: “Massachusetts Moderate.” The implication is, of course, that because Governor Romney resides, and governed, in Massachusetts, he is a political moderate. Now, how much sense does that make? If he spent time living in Ethiopia, would that make him a black man? If was an astronaut, and spent a couple of days on the moon, would that make him an alien? Just because I live in Florida, am I a senior citizen? No. None of those scenarios make sense, and neither does the one that suggests that Governor Mitt Romney is a moderate just because he is from Massachusetts. The phraseology used in this campaign, and that one especially, is rudimentary and thoughtless. Thus, it’s no wonder that the man behind the words, Newt Gingrich, has fallen farther and farther away from the top spot.
With his wins last Tuesday, Santorum has been propelled to Romney-status in the national polls (courtesy of the national media). That said, he won’t last atop the GOP list of potential nominees and by early next month Mitt Romney will be all but declared the official nominee of the Republican Party. Why is that? Look, Rick Santorum can absolutely take some wins in southern, ultra-conservative states. But those states, including Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, North Carolina, West Virginia, Alabama, etc., are all proportional! That means, that while Rick Santorum might get a majority of the delegates from those states, Mitt Romney will still take a proportional chunk of them. And furthermore, the states in which Mitt Romney is a shoe-in, like Arizona, Maryland, D.C., Delaware, Utah, etc., are all winner-take-all! That means that even if Santorum takes 40% of a given state, if Romney has more than that—which he will—he will take 100% of the delegates from that state.
Just use common sense: the GOP is not going to put a strong-handed right-winger (even relative to the mainstream Republican Party) against the President. The country does not vacillate between extremes in just four years. And, furthermore, independents would be much more likely to vote for Obama than they would be to vote for Santorum—but Romney, he’s a viable candidate to take the independent, middle-of-the-road voters. And as much as the phrase “moderate” might irritate him, it’s also the exact thing that’s going to give him a decent shot at winning the presidency.
Justin Stern is a student journalist, currently studying Political Science at FAU. Follow him on Twitter @justinmlstern and read his political commentary blog at justinstern.blogspot.com
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