The original phrase, “what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas,” has been used countless times and in relation to a wide range of events. But the truth is, the tagline is misleading. What happens in Vegas doesn’t always stay in Vegas. Sure, it’s a good motto for a bachelor party, but it isn’t a rational notion when it comes to national politics. Make no mistake about it: Governor Mitt Romney will take his Saturday win in Nevada and run with it—possibly all the way to the Republican National Convention in Tampa Bay, FL late this summer.
This isn’t the defining moment of the campaign, though. From what I’ve seen thus far, I’d have to say that Gingrich’s win in South Carolina was the most important—and startling—event so far in the GOP race for the nomination. It sent such a ripple through the mucky water that has characterized this race because it was proof of his (second) resurrection. Twice before, he had been essentially discounted by national polls. There is something about Gingrich, though. Some call it the “X” factor; I call it the “XXL” factor. Whatever it is, it continues to propel him to the top even after some wild, outlandish statement relegates him to the pit of the gang. And, as people who have followed him for more than an hour know, wild, outlandish statements aren’t an anomaly when it comes to Newt—they’re an integral part of the recipe, and many say the recipe is one for disaster.
Romney regained his lead following the Florida primary in part by advertising himself as a man of “constancy” with regard to his faith, career and personal life, many of which stand in stark contrast to Newt’s. That said, Romney’s impressive Florida finish should be looked at as part of the bigger picture. The state, contrary to what Romney has said, is not “a microcosm of the entire country.” If that were the case, Medicare would need some serious improvements and the federal government would have to start giving some serious consideration to the prospect of subsidizing the manufacturers of golf carts and walking canes.
What’s so important about Romney’s Nevada win is not that he finished twenty-seven percentage points ahead of Newt, who finished in second. What’s so remarkable about the win is that it marked the first time in this up-and-down series of campaigns in which someone has won two states in a row. Romney will go into Tuesday’s contests with a two-state win streak, and that’s something that no other candidate will have. The Republican electorate has seen a wide variety of characters in this race and many of them have said very, very stupid things. We must remember, however, that whichever way this race turns, we must take everything the candidates say with a pound of salt and acknowledge that we’re getting an up-close look at what's inside the DSM IV.
Look, the race is far from over. Romney’s win was a crucial one, but it wasn’t a definitive game-changer. Let’s not forget Howard Dean’s tailspin (or Mitt Romney’s flame-out in 2008). Who knows? Maybe Republicans will go with the most consistent candidate (and that would be either Santorum or Paul). Surely, the Massachusetts Governor has not been guaranteed the nomination—not even close. And Newt will make Romney’s work over the next six months just as difficult as possible. Newt’s handling of his campaign is reflective of his narcissistic personality; he’s more interested in inflating himself than promoting the ideals of his party. I genuinely believe that he will vote for President Obama just to spite Romney if, in fact, Romney gets the nomination.
With Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri opening their polls on Tuesday morning, the race could change in a matter of days (or less). Nevertheless, what happened in Vegas on Saturday won’t stay there. Romney’s momentum will follow him wherever he goes. We’ll see it in his smile, we’ll hear it in his voice, and we’ll see it vilified in Newt’s ads. And that, my friends, is when we’ll know that Newt’s chances of securing the nomination are dwindling away.
Funny and insightful - great combination!
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